David Lawrence: Shell and Academic External Research Publications 1982-2003

David T. Lawrence

Bibliography of External Publications

Lawrence, D.T., 1982, Influence of transgressive - regressive pulses on coal-bearing strata of the Upper Cretaceous Adaville Formation, southwestern Wyoming: Utah Geological and Mineral Survey Bulletin 118, p. 32-48.

Lawrence, D.T., Kauffman, E.G., Fursich, F., and Ryer, T.A., 1982, Paleobiological refinement of models for Cretaceous coal depositional systems, Western Interior, North America, ( abst.) : Geological Society of America 95th Annual Meeting, Abstracts with Programs.

Lawrence, D.T., 1983, Primary controls on total reserves, thickness, geometry and distribution of coal seams; Upper Cretaceous Adaville Formation, southwestern Wyoming ( abst. ) Geological Society of America 96th Annual Meeting, Abstracts with Programs.

Lawrence, D.T., 1984, Patterns and Dynamics of Late Cretaceous Marginal Marine Sedimentation; Overthrust Belt, Southwestern Wyoming; Yale University Ph.D. Dissertation,  280 p., 5 appendices, 12 plates.

Lawrence David T. (reviewer); 1985: Principles of sedimentary basin analysis by Andrew D. Miall; book review; American Journal of Science 285(3): 282-283

Lawrence, D.T., M. Doyle, S. Snelson, and W.T. Horsfield, 1987, Stratigraphic modeling of sedimentary basins, ( expanded abstract), Society of Exploration Geophysicists 57th Annual International Meeting Expanded Abstracts Volume, p.407-408.

Aigner, T., M. Doyle, D. Lawrence, M. Eating and A.  Van Vliet, 1988, Quantitative modeling of carbonate platforms: some examples: SEPM Special Publication 44, p. 27-37.

Lawrence, D.T., M. Doyle and T. Aigner, 1989, Calibration of Stratigraphic Models in Exploration Settings, ( abstract), AAPG Bulletin Annual Mtg Abstracts.

Lawrence, D.T., M. Doyle, and T. Aigner, 1990, Stratigraphic simulation of sedimentary basins: concepts and calibration: AAPG Bulletin, v. 74, p. 273-295.

Aigner, T.A., A. Brandenburg, A. Van Vliet, M. Doyle, D. Lawrence, and J. Westrich, 1990, Stratigraphic modeling of epicontinental basins: two applications: Sedimentary Geology, v. 69, p. 167-190.

Shuster, M.W., and D.T. Lawrence, 1991, Controls on passive margin stratigraphy: Seismostratigraphic and basin modeling evaluation of Georges Bank Basin, AAPG Bulletin ( abst), v. 75, p. 671-672.

Lawrence, D. T., 1992, Primary Controls on Total Reserves, Thickness, Geometry, and Distribution of Coal Seams. Upper Cretaceous Adaville Formation, Southwestern Wyoming, in McCabe, P.J. and Judith Totman Parish, eds, Controls on the distribution and quality of Cretaceous coals, Geological Society of America Special Paper 267.

Wilson, G.A., C.E. Harvie and D.T. Lawrence, 1992, A model for diagenesis in the Upper Wilcox reservoir sandstones at Fandango Field, south Texas, USA in Kharaka & Maes (eds), Water-Rock Interaction;  Balkema, Rotterdam, p. 1209-1212.

Lawrence, D.T., and R.N. Anderson,1993, Details confirm Gulf of Mexico Deepwater as significant province: Oil and Gas Journal, May 24, p. 93-96.

Westrich, J,  D.T. Lawrence, M.A. Doyle,  T. Aigner, and A. Brandenburg, 1993, SORCER: A Comprehensive Paleogeographic, Stratigraphic, and Geochemical Model for Marine Source Rock Prediction, AAPG Abstracts with programs.

Lawrence, D.T., 1993, Evaluation of eustasy, subsidence, and sediment input as controls on de positional sequence geometries and the synchroneity of sequence boundaries, Chapter 13, in Weimer, P. and  Posamentier, H.W., Siliciclastic Sequence Stratigraphy, AAPG Memoir 58, p. 337-367.

Lawrence, D.T., 1994, Turbidite technical challenges in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Coast Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists 15th Annual Research Conference, p. 217-220.

Prather, B., G. Steffens, D.T. Lawrence, 1996, Turbidite technical challenges: Role of modeling and visualization technologies in assessing reservoir risk in Deepwater plays; West Africa Offshore Conference, Conference Paper, 6p.

Lawrence, D.T., 1997, Gulf of Mexico Shelf: Exploration in a mature province, GCSEPM Foundation 18th Annual Research Conference, Shallow Marine and Nonmarine Reservoirs, p. 149-154.

Lawrence, D.T, 2000, Deepwater production development options in the Gulf of Mexico, 16th World Petroleum Congress Papers, Calgary, Canada. 5p.

Weimer, P., R. M. Slatt, J. L. Coleman, N. Rosen, C. H. Nelson, A. H. Bouma, M. Styzen, and D. T. Lawrence, editors; 2000, Global Deep-Water Reservoirs: Gulf Coast Section-SEPM Twentieth Annual Research Conference, 1104 p.

Lawrence, D.T., 2001, Successful Exploration and Development of Significant Oil Fields in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, AAPG Abstracts with programs.

Lawrence, D. T., and A. van den Berg, 2003, Successful exploration and development of significant oil fields in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, in M. T. Halbouty, ed., Giant oil and gas fields of the decade 1990–1999, AAPG Memoir 78, p. 155–157.

Reserve Life, Resource Life and Meeting World Energy Needs

A national newspaper headline this past week stated we have 53.3 years of oil left. The precision is remarkable, but the accuracy is a bit off.

The story was based on information in BP’s 2014 Annual Statistical Review  and was derived by dividing global proved reserves by production rates of oil.

Fortunately, proved reserves are just part of the resource story. They neglect oil and gas yet to be discovered and new plays.  And they are only a portion of ultimate recoverable resources in and around already discovered fields. Advancements in exploration, drilling, completion, development and production technologies continue to add resources during the lifetime of a field or play. The best recent example of this is in unconventional oil and gas: the shale plays, and light tight oil ( for example the growth of the Bakken, Eagleford, Marcellus and Permian). But it's true in conventional fields as well. A prime example is the new Shell Mars B development in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico which recently came on production in the prolific Mars Basin.  The same applies to most of the other big deep water fields around the world as well as the giant fields of the Mideast, the North Slope of Alaska, Latin America and the Far East – in fact most of the largest discoveries of the past century. The rule is:  Big fields get bigger. And as the resource base grows, the reserve base also grows, and both reserve life and the resource life are extended.  History supports this:  Proved reserves have more than doubled since 1980 – even while the world consumed more oil in that time period than it had proved reserves in 1980. 

So, it's probably a bit  premature to say we only have a half century of oil left. To be fair, the newspaper story actually recognized this early on in the body of the article ( and, clearly, the original BP review took the broader view of resource growth and historical increase in reserves.) Hopefully readers made it past the sound byte of the headline.

Why is this important? The world needs energy to feed, clothe, shelter, transport, care for and educate a population that will grow at an average rate of over a million people per week until the middle of this century. Energy is crucial to lift people from a life of hardship and poverty: for schools, farms, businesses, hospitals, and industry – and to meet basic needs.

Today in this rapidly expanding world, 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity, and nearly 900 million still use unsafe drinking water.  More than 2.5 billion people still rely on biomass, like wood and dung, for cooking.  The dilemna we face is that under almost any energy scenario, world energy demand will continue to grow at a pace even greater than the pace of population growth – this despite the best efforts of increased efficiency and conservation efforts.

To the  worlds emerging economies and for the livelihoods and health of people around the world, affordable, available and reliable energy is essential.  It is highly likely that, even while renewable energy makes gigantic and welcome strides, at least until the middle of this century the majority of that affordable energy supply will still need to come from oil, natural gas and coal, and as is increasingly evident nuclear.  As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ( see Energy Pragmatism http://lawrence1energy.blogspot.com/2014/06/energy-pragmatism_17.html )  only the most innovative technologies, policies and investments across all energy sectors will allow us to both meet the energy needs of the world and mitigate the impacts of that very energy.

And that's why it's important that we have more than 53.3 years of oil left. And why it's important to read beyond the headlines.